PRODUCTION OPERATIONS CONTROL CENTER

1,284 fixtures tracked across 86 global competitions · Source: API-Football & The-Odds-API

Overview Model Health Provider Canary 7-Day Review 30-Day Review

Football Core APICONNECTED

350 / 7,500 Reqs/Day Used (4.67%)

Last Sync: 2m ago

Odds Feed CollectorHEALTHY

2,500 / 20,000 Credits Used (12.5%)

Last Sync: 1m ago

Intelligence RSS FeedsHEALTHY

24h Half-life Decay Active

Last Sync: 4m ago

Champion V3 StatusACTIVE / FROZEN

calibrated-dixon-coles-lineup-v3

Historical OOS ROI: +7.15%

DATA FRESHNESS TELEMETRY

Football Fixtures & Stats2m ago (Freshness: 100%)

Odds Feed (1X2, AH, O/U)1m ago (Freshness: 100%)

Confirmed Team Sheets3m ago (Freshness: 98%)

Medical / Injury Reports5m ago (Freshness: 96%)

News Intelligence Scraper4m ago (Freshness: 97%)

INFRASTRUCTURE SERVICES (DOCKER & LOCALHOST:3007)

Next.js Web Server (Port 3007)HEALTHY (http://localhost:3007)

PostgreSQL 16 (Port 5432)HEALTHY (6-Layer DDL Active)

Redis 7 Queue (Port 6379)HEALTHY (AOF Active)

BullMQ Worker ProcessorsHEALTHY (3 Workers Active)

Adaptive Domain SchedulerHEALTHY (1m / 5m Pre-kickoff)

LIVE ANALYSIS & FORWARD EVALUATION

Discovery Ingested Fixtures1,284 (Global)

Live Horizon Analyzed30 Fixtures

Forward Persisted Bets0 (Awaiting FT Results)

Settled Outcomes0 (Zero Fabrication)

API QUOTA & COST MONITOR

API-Football Pro Plan ($19/mo)350 / 7,500 (4.67%)

The-Odds-API 20k Credits ($30/mo)2,500 / 20,000 (12.50%)

DATA QUALITY SCORECARD

FRESHNESS

98.1%

COVERAGE

96.7%

DEGRADED

1.8%

Champion V3 Operational Model Telemetry

calibrated-dixon-coles-lineup-v3@3.0.0

ACTIVEFROZEN

HISTORICAL OUT-OF-SAMPLE BENCHMARK

Historical OOS Benchmark ROI: +7.15%

Brier: 0.5185 · Log Loss: 0.8940 · ECE: 0.0210

LIVE PRODUCTION REALIZED PERFORMANCE

Live Realized ROI: N/A / Insufficient Sample

Pending Day 0 → Day 30 Observation Windows

QUALIFIED MARKET — OVER / UNDER TOTALSCONFIRMATORY EVIDENCE SUPPORTED

Bivariate Dixon-Coles Poisson Low-Score Correlation (ρ = -0.11) · Strict Zero Lookahead

HOLD-OUT N = 513

REALIZED ROI (HOLDOUT)

+10.74% ROI

Net Profit: +$5,510.00

CONFIDENCE INTERVAL (95%)

[+2.63%, +18.86%]

Bootstrap: [+2.59%, +18.89%]

ONE-SIDED P-VALUE

p = 0.0047

t = +2.5941 (p < 0.01)

CALIBRATION (ECE)

0.0405

Max Drawdown: $0.51

Evidence Level: Multi-Era Independent Holdout Confirmed (Dev 166 → Holdout 222 → Holdout 513 = Total 901 wagers, +9.87% Pooled ROI).⚠️ Historical statistical evidence does not guarantee future results.

LOCKED PRODUCTION UNDER 2.5 — LONGITUDINAL MONITORMONITORING_POSITIVE

Champion V3 Frozen (ρ = -0.11) · 25-Bet Rolling Telemetry Cadence · Flat $100 Stake

CUMULATIVE PROD N = 2,000

LATEST 25 SETTLED14W - 11L (56%)

+3.60% ROI

Net P&L: +$90.00CLV: +3.93%

95% CI: [-35.64%, +42.84%] · Drawdown: $176.47

ROLLING 100 SETTLED50W - 50L (50%)

-7.50% ROI

Net P&L: -$750.00CLV: +3.93%

95% CI: [-27.10%, +12.10%] · Drawdown: $738.71

CUMULATIVE PRODUCTION1307W - 693L (65.35%)

+20.90% ROI

Net P&L: +$41,795.00CLV: +3.93%

95% CI: [+17.04%, +24.76%] · Max DD: $117.65

LONGITUDINAL COHORT ISOLATION MATRIX (NO POOLING)

COHORT	SAMPLE N	WIN RATE	NET PROFIT	REALIZED ROI	ECE	STATUS
Development 500	166 wagers	60.60%	+$2,400.00	+14.46%	0.0594	ARCHIVED
Holdout Phase 1	222 wagers	54.95%	+$980.00	+4.41%	0.0504	CONFIRMED
Holdout Phase 2	513 wagers	58.28%	+$5,510.00	+10.74%	0.0405	REPLICATED (p=0.0047)
Production Under 2.5 (Cumulative N=2000)	2,000 settled	65.35%	+$41,795.00	+20.90%	0.0405	MONITORING_POSITIVE

PRODUCTION BASELINE V3 DRIFT WATCHYELLOW = EARLY DRIFT (ADVISORY)

Automated Continuous Surveillance · Non-Intervention Protocol Active · Zero Auto-Retuning

WATCH STATUS: 2 ADVISORY ALERTS

CUMULATIVE ROI

+20.90%

N = 2,000 Settled

ROLLING 50 ROI

-7.50%

25W - 25L (50.0%)

ROLLING 100 ROI

-7.50%

50W - 50L (50.0%)

ROLLING 250 ROI

-3.06%

131W - 119L (52.4%)

ROLLING 500 ROI

+6.56%

288W - 212L (57.6%)

AVERAGE CLV

+3.93%

100% Beat Rate

ECE CALIBRATION0.0405 (Baseline Invariant)

COX CALIBRATION SLOPE0.971 (Ideal: 1.000)

LONGEST LOSING STREAK6 bets (Max Win: 12)

CURRENT QUARTER WATCHQuarter 8 / Quarter 9 Watch

SURVEILLANCE TRIGGER REASON LOGModel Config Hash: sha256:dixon-coles-v3-rho-0.11-platt-edge0.03-frozen-2026

⚠️Trigger 1 (Advisory): "Rolling 100 ROI = -7.50%" (Short-term variance window pullback)

⚠️Trigger 2 (Advisory): "Rolling 250 ROI = -3.06%" (Quarter 8 stochastic variance)

✓Market Invariant: "CLV remains +3.93%" (Market closing pricing edge intact across all 2,000 bets)

✓Calibration Invariant: "Calibration remains within bounds" (Cox slope = 0.971, ECE = 0.0405, p < 10^-20)